
What will a war between Russia and Ukraine mean for the world? For Europe? For the global economy?
Lots of death and destruction in Ukraine. Human suffering and misery. A new refugee crisis because many Ukrainians, and probably Russians, will try to flee the conflict. I think that there won't be direct military intervention by other countries out of fear of escalation, but who knows. Certainly a lot of sanctions, and a lot of cold and exploding electricity bills ( Russian gas supplies will be cut off either by Russia for pressure or European countries as sanctions).
Also, the global oil and gas prices will increase, countries like Qatar will benefit from washing their image. Russia should be banned from Olympics and other sporting competitions ( the World cup comes to mind). And the stock market, especially in European countries, will dive a bit.
> Also, the global oil and gas prices will increase,
It did cross my mind that perhaps we might start to see energy rationing, something that was used in the UK not too long ago.
Probably not much, Russia is likely to annex Eastern parts of Ukraine. Germany will continue with NS2 as this winter have proven there really isn't other options. Some political talk and maybe some sanctions will go on for a while.
From what I heard:
- more chip shortage because of neon gas from ukraine and sanctions against russia
- yet another state loosing democracy and in the kremlins grip
- and war in this case is not binary. There already is war and the extend of a further invasion can vary.
- energy market trouble in germany