For the sake of argument, assume that if your job consists of sitting at a computer, reading on a screen, and typing on a keyboard, then your career will go away.
There is always room at the top, and there may always be room for humans at the top of any career. Assume (this is a tough ask, I know)...
There is always room at the top, and there may always be room for humans at the top of any career. Assume (this is a tough ask, I know) that you are NOT one of those people.
What is your fallback job? What skills do you have or would like to acquire that might keep you going? Bicycle mechanic? Teach music to children? Woodworking/carpentry? (Living off your stock options or investments does not count)
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By sending manufacturing jobs overseas for decades, America sold out blue collar families so that the rich could get richer. After if/when AI will do the same to middle-class white collar workers, maybe people will realize that it's long overdue that we eat the rich.
While some labor intensive jobs did migrate overseas, most job losses were to automation, not other countries. Today 2% of people are in agriculture and production is higher than its ever been. This pattern is reflected across the spectrum. Overall American production in 2024 is up there with the best production years ever.
And yes, automation improves profits thus enriching the owner class.
Overall the value of production is still there. America is still the richest country. It's not the amount of richness that is the problem, it's the distribution of riches.
Europe for example followed a path of high taxation, high benefits for all. People work less, but get more. Sure, it's harder to be a billionaire but it's also harder to be completely destitute or medically bankrupt. (Not impossible obviously, just harder.)
AI will be a net gain in Europe. Productivity per man hour increases, and society is already primed to pass that saving onto the public - perhaps shorter working hours, perhaps more leave, perhaps more benefits.
Unfortunately the US is not going to adapt to AI as well, because culturally the US treats thr unemployed badly. Unemployment is the intimate Calvanistic sin, and has connotations of laziness. The concepts of universal health care, unrestricted unemployment grants, taxing the rich to fund the poor are against the very ethos of the American way.
The ease with which social programs are gutted, unions disparaged, taxes on the rich reduced would suggest that the public still sees wealth and worth the same. This is cultural, not political, and it will take generations to change.
So no, there are no "blue collar manufacturering" jobs coming back. And white collar jobs are just as susceptible to automation. Indeed computerization has already gobbled up a bunch of those.
But perhaps, maybe, hopefully, we can start moving to a place where we disassociate 'job' from 'worth' to a place where the excess of plenty can be shared.
By MattPalmer1086 2025-06-157:29 For a short story that explores both scenarios, check out "Manna" by Marshall Brain:
By chairmansteve 2025-06-154:29 Manufacturing as a percentage of gdp had been flat since the late 1940s. Automation has eliminated a lot of jobs.
"Manufacturing's share of real GDP has been fairly constant since the 1940s, ranging from 11.3 percent to 13.6 percent. It sat at 11.7 percent in 2015."
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-manu...
They'll be living in bunkers in New Zealand, secured by armed guards wearing shock collars (so that the guards don't eat them).
By bravesoul2 2025-06-143:29 If the collars are IoT then the hackers will mount a coup
By not_your_vase 2025-06-1317:115 reply Dibs on being a politician. I have never heard about a starving one, and it doesn't require an awful lot of skills beside being a good liar. (This is only half-joke. I do have some vague aspirations for changing some public stuff that grind my gears)
By mitthrowaway2 2025-06-1319:182 reply In my experience, it does require a lot of skills. You won't notice them if you only interact with politicians through reading about them in the news, but successful politicians have a lot of charisma, are very good at remembering names and faces of people they meet once at a crowded party, and are good at spinning answers to make everyone hear what they wanted to hear.
By GianFabien 2025-06-1322:011 reply The most essential talent required of politicians is to extract the greatest amount of donations, funding for themselves and their party. Below the media polished image, it is all about money. Power is about being able to get the money.
By abnercoimbre 2025-06-141:58 I hadn't realized America glorifies the almighty dollar to the extent that it does until recently. Everything boils down to this; I feel like a fool.
Most of what you've written just boils down to the ability to being a good liar. :)
By HeyLaughingBoy 2025-06-1321:381 reply That's an extremely uncharitable take. Especially when nothing about the post suggested that.
The deeper point is that the skills that were mentioned are very important in terms of getting along with a variety of people.
By 000ooo000 2025-06-1410:11 >nothing about the post suggested that.
>[they] are good at spinning answers to make everyone hear what they wanted to hear.
To me that definitely reads like the original comment was alluding to an ability to bend the truth or frame things in an advantageous way, which is essentially lying's brother, manipulation.
Besides, politicians have earned their reputation a hundred times over. Good luck convincing anyone that it's unfair to suggest politicians are liars.
I similarly half-joke about the same thing. Being "replaced by AI" would be the kick in the pants to finally make a run of it.
In Seattle, I feel like I could get really far on a dumb, single-issue platform: "I will fix the potholes on 1st ave." I won't talk about anything except that. I'll only try to accomplish that. And then I'll leave.
By mathgeek 2025-06-1321:32 > "I will fix the potholes on 1st ave."
I hear Dominos is hiring if you want to leverage the power of the private sector for pothole filling. ;)
By HeyLaughingBoy 2025-06-1321:362 reply One of the most though-provoking things that I've heard AOC say is (paraphrasing), "I'm not a very good politician, but I'm an excellent public servant."
Wish there were more like her!
By csomar 2025-06-157:41 > I have never heard about a starving one
Politics make Silicon Valley startup culture like a stable career. You only hear about non-starving politicians because you only hear about the successful ones. Politics is extremely hard which is why only people with no technical skills can make it (they max out on emotional/social skills).
By VoodooJuJu 2025-06-1322:20 [dead]
By steve_adams_86 2025-06-1319:101 reply I'm slowly building a business which produces and sells plant tissue cultures. I have many years to go before I can do it full time, but that's the goal in around 5 years. One of the big challenges is scaling up. This work is fairly labour intensive once you've got several batches on the go, and different species and protocols lead to different timelines and so on. There's always something to do. At some point, assuming things pick up, I'll have to go all in on the business. That'll be scary. There'll be an extremely busy liminal zone in which I have a full time job and thousands of cultures to manage. The margins aren't incredible, so it'll be a slog with fairly limited rewards. However, once I get past that zone and can leverage economies of scale and more safely invest more in the business, it should get quite a bit easier. Here's hoping. The risk and sweat equity factor is truly not appreciated if you haven't done it before.
That frankly sounds fascinating & amazing. Are the cultures used for grafting onto plants or something else entirely? I had an aunt that used to grow specialty crops and they were always rotating the varieties and raising different seedlings to see what they would like grow next.
By steve_adams_86 2025-06-140:24 It’s very fascinating and totally amazing! I almost exclusively grow terrarium and aquarium plants for hobbyists at this point, with a few businesses buying small allotments. As I expand what I can offer and gain more traction it should allow the business to grow a bit, slowly but surely.
The terrarium plants get acclimated in 2” pots. Aquarium plants go straight out in vitro.
I’ve got some blueberries on the go as an experiment because I know a farmer who would like to buy them, and that could be a future avenue to do higher volume. But at this point I’d prefer to stay away from agriculture if I can. I enjoy it, but it doesn’t really keep me ticking like the others do.
