Comments
We'll see if the markets are still too optimistic here or not. I don't see how this will resolve quickly, so the Strait of Hormuz will likely remain essentially closed for quite a bit longer. I don't see any escort plans by US military ships as working, if Iranian troops actively try to disrupt this.
By tharmas 2026-03-0918:57 It's the insurance companies who are saying "no way". No insurance, no shipping.
By nagisa 2026-03-0916:42 The humanity has all the knowledge and tools it needs at this point to have anybody: individual persons, counties, countries, continents be much more self-sufficient in energy, in a way that makes economic (and all sorts of other) sense.
I am glad to personally be largely independent of molecule-sourced energy March to October. Hoping that the countries affected by oil instability take this as an opportunity to learn this lesson as well.
By softwaredoug 2026-03-0914:473 reply I mostly worry the US will now need to constantly bomb an unstable region under Israel’s horrifying “mow the grass” philosophy[1].
Both from the fact that’s horrific cost of life in the Middle East and creates perpetual resentment making the US less safe.
By mupuff1234 2026-03-0914:501 reply Pretty sure the US already does that. Every once in a while you'll hear about a strike on ISIS etc.
And I'm guessing there's lots of operations you don't exactly hear about.
By softwaredoug 2026-03-0914:512 reply I think what we’re getting drawn into is an order of magnitude (or more?) escalation of the regular “strikes on ISIS” phenomenon. Maybe morally on par with Israel leveling Gaza - but in a much larger country.
By tharmas 2026-03-0919:09 Yup totally agree but this is going to be on a much bigger scale than Libya. Massive in comparison. Just think of all the war refugees. Will make Syria look like a Sunday picnic. No wonder Europe looks on in Horror.
By mupuff1234 2026-03-0914:562 reply I doubt it.
Assuming the US does these kinds of operations it will likely target only high value targets like the rebuilding of a nuclear facility etc
So it's gonna be very targeted and limited in scope, as opposed to Gaza.
By tharmas 2026-03-0919:04 The US Military blew up a water de-salination plant in Iran. (Yes, I am aware the Iranians retaliated and blew up a water de-salination plant in Bahrain - but I'm sure you'll understand my point). That's arguably a war crime. So I have serious doubts that this war will be "limited in scope". Just look at who is in charge of the military. It tells you all you need to know.
They can always claim the target was a nuclear facility.
Like this time where the bombed nuclear facilities that were "obliterated like nobody‘s ever seen before" last year.
By mupuff1234 2026-03-0915:131 reply They can always do a lot of stuff, but it's just not very likely.
And they did bomb nuclear facilities - nobody is denying that.
Even this time, excluding the tragic school event, there have been very minimal number of casualties compared to the amount of munitions being used, so clearly not a Gaza scenario at all.
So Trump‘s claim last year was BS that they totally obliterated the nuclear facilities?
Didn’t say anything about Gaza. This is more likely to be a second Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya. This isn’t a movie where it ends with the death of the main villain.
By tharmas 2026-03-0919:07 It'll be like Libya but on a far bigger scale. Massive population compared to Libya.
I think their intent is to bomb Iran into rubble.
BB has pulled off the ultimate coup. He's managed to sucker a US President into doing the dirty work cutting Iran down to a manageable size with the US paying for almost all the costs. The Pentagon loves it of course because they get to "test" out their toys to see how well they work.
The Iranian people pay the highest price. The rest of us pay economically through sky high oil prices.
By danaris 2026-03-0915:21 The US most certainly does not, nor ever will need to do anything so horrifying and cruel.
That's like saying "ugh, now I need to beat my son every day, or he won't do what I tell him". Sure, if the only tool you think you have in your arsenal is violence, that seems like something you "need" to do, but in the real world, we have many other tools that are much much more effective at achieving our goals. They just...might require actually caring about other people, and treating them with respect and human dignity, and *gasp* possibly even acting like something other than the most absurd caricature of a "manly man" to ever man.
Now, what's abundantly clear is that nothing like that will ever happen as long as any party that remotely resembles the current Republicans is in power in the US. So hopefully that can be another good reason to get them out permanently.
By lakrici88284 2026-03-0914:48 [dead]
