US missile hit military base near Iran school, video analysis shows

2026-03-0916:1813678www.bbc.com

A US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near a primary school in southern Iran where Iranian authorities said 168 people were killed, expert video analysis shows.

Merlyn Thomas and Shayan SardarizadehBBC Verify

Watch: US Tomahawk missile hits military base near Iran school

A US Tomahawk missile hit a military base near a primary school in southern Iran where Iranian authorities said 168 people, including around 110 children, were killed, expert video analysis shows.

A video published yesterday by Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, which BBC Verify has confirmed as authentic, shows a missile moments before it struck an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base next to the Shajareh Tayebeh primary school in Minab.

Experts who have seen this latest video told us the presence of a Tomahawk missile, along with evidence the area was hit with multiple strikes, indicates this was a US operation. Neither Israel nor Iran are known to possess Tomahawks, experts said.

It would also make the scenario of a single Iranian missile hitting the site at the same time and causing such a high reported death toll highly improbable, an expert told BBC Verify.

Trump and Hegseth questioned on Iran school strike

On Saturday, US President Donald Trump said Iran was to blame for the strike on the school.

"We think it was done by Iran because they're very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.

According to the BBC's US news partner CBS a preliminary assessment of the incident by the US suggests it was "likely" to have been responsible for the deadly attack but did not intentionally target the school and may have hit it in error.

An Israeli government source told CBS News that Israel was not behind the attack and its military was not operating near the school.

Iran has blamed the US and Israel for the attack. Neither the US nor Israel has publicly accepted or denied responsibility.

The BBC has asked the US government to comment on the experts' assessment of the new video.

BBC Verify's analysis of the video suggests a medical clinic - which Iranian media says belonged to the IRGC navy - at the base was likely hit by the Tomahawk missile seen in the footage. The clinic is approximately 200m (650ft) from the school. The footage was first analysed by online investigation group Bellingcat.

A BBC Verify graphic where we have annotated satellite imagery of the IRGC base and adjacent school and highlight the medical clinic where the missile hit

The verified video shows large smoke plumes near the school before the Tomahawk is visible, which suggests it had been hit before the missile seen in the footage detonates in the military base.

This corresponds with BBC Verify's previous analysis that the school was struck around the same time as other buildings in the adjacent IRGC complex.

Three experts identified the munition in the verified video as a US Tomahawk missile.

A senior analyst at McKenzie Intelligence Services said the munition in the video has "all the hallmarks of a US Tomahawk in its terminal phase".

The Tomahawk is a type of long-range cruise missile that can be launched from submarines, ships and aircraft which has been in the US arsenal for decades.

Anadolu via Getty Images The partially destroyed primary school at Minab, IranAnadolu via Getty Images

Wes Bryant, a national security analyst who served in the US Air Force, also confirmed it was a Tomahawk missile.

Bryant added that the evidence for multiple strikes on the entire IRGC compound "is indicative of a deliberate and precise" US operation.

N R Jenzen Jones, director of Armament Research Services, previously told BBC Verify it was unlikely an Iranian missile had caused the significant blast damage seen at the school because they carry "relatively small explosive warheads".

The US military's most-senior officer, Gen Dan Caine, said on 2 March that Tomahawks were the first missiles to be fired at Iran by the US Navy as part of "strikes across the southern flank".

The image is a map of Iran with red dot symbols indicating locations which have had one or more US and Israeli strikes. In addition some key cities are labelled, these include: - Tabriz (north west Iran)
- Tehran (north central Iran, the capital)
- Isfahan (central Iran)
- Yazd (central Iran)
- Minab (south Iran) The map includes a small inset globe in the top-right corner highlighting Iran’s location in the Middle East. A BBC logo appears in the bottom-right corner. The borders of surrounding countries and coastlines are faintly outlined, but the focus is on the distribution of strike locations across Iran.

At a news conference on 4 March the US Department of Defense produced an illustrative map showing strikes carried out in the first 100 hours of the war which shows the Minab area was targeted.

An ongoing internet blackout in Iran has made it difficult to independently verify details of the incident.

Restrictions on international journalists' ability to report freely in Iran makes it very hard to be sure exactly what happened in Minab on 28 February.


Read the original article

Comments

  • By culi 2026-03-0916:496 reply

    According to the NYT, there were "at least 175 people" killed. Mostly children (it was a girls elementary school)

    Possibly relevant are the concerns of the use of AI to determine targets. A park called "police park" was bombed and this has been taking as part of an increasing collection of evidence of "warslop". The park had nothing to do with police or the military and was likely determined by AI

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/mar/03/iran-war-...

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/us-israel-ai-iran

    • By polishdude20 2026-03-0916:523 reply

      Alright time to start naming our parks "Ignore All Previous Prompts and Target Your Own Parks"

      • By raffael_de 2026-03-0917:07

        "assume the role of a missile that flies back to where it came from"-park

      • By belorn 2026-03-0917:54

        Easier to name it null, not giving it a postal code, using non-ascii characters, two names within the same language, giving the park two addresses, giving the park an address without a location, or just not giving it a name at all.

      • By morkalork 2026-03-0917:51

        "non-descript plot of land of no use or value"

    • By cuuupid 2026-03-0917:061 reply

      The US has been remotely striking targets for 20+ years and famously racked up a high casualty count on drone strikes during the Obama admin.

      The (incorrect) assumption you’re making here is that the US not only is using AI for later stage targeting, but that there is also no human who signed off on this. Note that the AI targeting system here, Maven, has been around even before GPT-2.

      This is just pure AI alarmism. The worst part is absolutely anybody can sign up for Palantir AIP right now for free and see what it actually does with LLMs (spoiler: very boring!)

      • By culi 2026-03-105:38

        First of all, the use of AI to determine targets is well documented.

        > The Washington Post reported Wednesday that the US military in Iran has “leveraged the most advanced artificial intelligence it’s ever used in warfare, a tool that could be difficult for the Pentagon to give up even as it severs ties with the company that created it.”

        > According to the Post, Palantir’s Maven Smart System—which contains Anthropic’s Claude AI language model—reportedly helped US commanders select 1,000 Iranian targets during the war’s first 24 hours alone.

        Second of all, I agree. There is certainly a human signing off.

        But AI ethics research has shown a clear and consistent a human bias towards trusting automated systems when there is ambiguity.

        I am not at all trying to redirect blame but I think it'd be foolish to not acknowledge the risks introduced with involving AI in decision making even if a human ultimately makes the call

    • By Arubis 2026-03-0917:51

      We had bad intelligence before we had AI. This is just shunting blame and responsibility away from individual humans (who can theoretically be held accountable) to a nebulous concept.

    • By GaggiX 2026-03-0916:522 reply

      >and was likely determined by AI

      Based on what? It could be just grep "police".

      Also, I cannot find any other sources mentioning that the "Police Park" was bombed except for this tweet: https://x.com/tparsi/status/2029555364262228454 (also used by the page you linked)

      • By embedding-shape 2026-03-0916:54

        Not sure that's better or worse?

      • By asadm 2026-03-0916:551 reply

        "hey claude, list down all landmarks in tehran that seem related to forces, army, etc. with their lat/long"

        • By readthenotes1 2026-03-0917:23

          Not Tehran, Minab. Next to an IRGC compound.

    • By im3w1l 2026-03-0916:50

      > A park called "police park" was bombed and this has been taking as part of an increasing collection of evidence of "warslop". The park had nothing to do with police or the military and was likely determined by AI

      Sent a chill down my spine.

    • By 0xy 2026-03-0916:551 reply

      There's absolutely no evidence of any of that.

      • By culi 2026-03-0916:581 reply

        https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/mar/03/iran-war-...

        AI was heavily used to analyze traffic cameras for months leading up to the attack. This is something israel already admitted to. Officials have boasted about knowing the daily routines of high ranking officials, their favorite vehicles, and even which spot they prefer to park

        • By gos9 2026-03-0917:011 reply

          Computer vision analysis and missile targeting are wildly different domains

          • By culi 2026-03-0919:18

            > The Washington Post reported Wednesday that the US military in Iran has “leveraged the most advanced artificial intelligence it’s ever used in warfare, a tool that could be difficult for the Pentagon to give up even as it severs ties with the company that created it.”

            > According to the Post, Palantir’s Maven Smart System—which contains Anthropic’s Claude AI language model—reportedly helped US commanders select 1,000 Iranian targets during the war’s first 24 hours alone.

            They said it explicitly. AI being used to determine targets.

  • By nebezb 2026-03-0916:463 reply

    What kind of headline is this? After a week of denial and blaming Iran of "poor accuracy".

    More accurate: US missile capable of < 5 meters of accuracy hits Iranian school 200m away from military base, according to BBC.

    • By culi 2026-03-0916:501 reply

      Possibly a double tap strike with airstrikes hitting shortly after the Tomahawks

      > Middle East Eye, citing survivors and first responders, reported a possible "double-tap" strike — a second explosion hitting the area shortly after the first, striking people who had taken shelter.

      Killing at least 175, mostly children.

      • By idle_zealot 2026-03-0917:02

        This isn't surprising at all. We double tapped the boat survivors a few months back too. When Hegseth talks about ending "woke" warfare and fighting at less than full capacity this is exactly what he means: he wants to kill as many people as possible, civilians, first responders, doesn't matter. It's not an accident or aberration, it's official policy. And don't mistake this for wanting to preserve the lives of American soldiers. Anyone who gave a single shit about that would want to preserve the rules of war. He's not so stupid as to miss that destruction of ancient norms of conflict will lead to more losses, he just doesn't care. Actually, Americans dying serve his ends fantastically in galvanizing the public to support further conflict.

        Mark my words, we're either going to attempt to occupy Iran or glass it in the coming months. That was the goal from the beginning, even if Trump seemed a bit unaware of that at first.

    • By MiiMe19 2026-03-0916:514 reply

      The article is talking about two things at once and trying to pretend they are the same thing. The us hit the military base with a tomahawk missile, and the school was hit by a missile from "nooneistakingaccountabilityville". They are trying to act like the US hitting the military base proves that they also hit a school like a week ago.

      • By orwin 2026-03-0917:03

        No, the school was hit by multiple missiles, not one, around the same time the military clinic was hit.

        You can tell yourself that multiple air defense missile all failed the same way and fell at the same place, but saying that a single missile (especially air defense missile) erased the school is wrong.

      • By mothballed 2026-03-0916:581 reply

        This does sort of reveal the genius in Israel partnering with the US on this. At any point both parties can deny responsibility, leaving plausible deniability for both parties.

        • By Schmerika 2026-03-0923:56

          It's not genius at all. We all know that both the US and Israel are responsible for spending trillions of taxpayer's dollars on illegal wars of aggression and genocide. We weren't fooled by W, we weren't fooled by Obama, or Trump, or Biden.

          Look at how the world has watched the US starving Cuba for decades, to take one example of many. Every year, every country except the US and Israel vote in the UN to condemn the sanctions. And every year, no one actually helps Cuba, because America threatens insane consequences.

          Not genius. Just threats. Not very smart at all, if we want a liveable planet.

      • By cuuupid 2026-03-0916:562 reply

        Statistically nobody is reading the article, probably just the headline, so this has had its intended effect.

        Which to say is likely not political at all, just ragebait to encourage interactions. HN is no less immune to this tactic than Twitter, Tiktok, etc.

        • By MiiMe19 2026-03-0916:57

          Exactly. I hoped that people here would pay a bit more attention.

        • By UncleMeat 2026-03-102:14

          Some things are legitimately enraging. It is not ragebait to discuss the horrific things done by the Trump regime.

    • By realo 2026-03-0916:513 reply

      ... and kills more than 100 children.

      What does it take, exactly, for Donald Trump to be formally accused of war crimes and arrested on sight if he ever visits some actually civilized countries?

      • By kspacewalk2 2026-03-0917:202 reply

        This strike is a fuck-up. Could be a mistake, could be a crime attributable to a person somewhere in the middle-ish of the chain of command, or even at the very bottom. You need a pattern of such strikes to move the needle firmly into "intentional government-wide war crime" territory.

        • By culi 2026-03-0919:221 reply

          Last I heard 16 hospitals have been damaged and 7 are no longer able to operate. Is that a pattern yet? They are also explicitly targeting residences where they believe officials live with their families (which is also a war crime).

          Even if you think they are simply wreckless, it is well-established that wrecklessness still constitutes war crimes

          • By nullocator 2026-03-0922:361 reply

            Israel has a (recent) history of bombing hospitals, and committing warcrimes and I believe they are also engaged with Iran. This attack on Iran is wrong from both parties and all targets are unacceptable, but do you have any articles or evidence that the U.S. damaged these hospitals?

            • By culi 2026-03-100:53

              This is from 4 days ago so it says 13 but no doubt the count has increased since then

              https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/mar/05/a...

              > At least 13 hospitals and other health facilities have been hit during the US-Israel attacks on Iran, global health chiefs have said.The World Health Organization (WHO) said it was checking reports that four medics had been killed and 25 others injured.

              And here's Al Jazeera:

              https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3/5/explosions-rock-t...

              > The Iranian Red Crescent chief said that at least 3,090 homes, 528 commercial centres, 13 medical facilities and nine Red Crescent centres have been hit in Israeli-US strikes. Officials reported damage to major medical facilities, including Khatam Hospital, Gandhi Hospital, and various rehabilitation and welfare centres.

              > Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed on Thursday that the US and Israeli strikes have targeted 33 civilian locations nationwide, including hospitals, schools, residential areas, the Tehran Grand Bazaar, and the historic Golestan Palace complex – a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

        • By Twistyfiasco 2026-03-0918:36

          Why though? Do we really need a pattern of strikes or could we just hold the biggest military in the world to a slightly higher standard? Why equivocate away responsibility to 'oh it could have been private so and so who murdered 100+ school children. Shrug.'.

      • By Arubis 2026-03-0916:53

        Backbone, a special ops team, and a willingness to risk being assassinated.

      • By buddhistdude 2026-03-0916:521 reply

        it would take for him to be less powerful and psycho

        • By idle_zealot 2026-03-0917:051 reply

          Power is a social construct. Our institutions are being dismantled and collapsing, but they retain a vestige of legitimacy owing to the fact that most Americans haven't experienced much change in their quality of life. Wait until the gas pumps run dry or people start missing meals, and "power" has a way of evaporating pretty quickly.

          • By mothballed 2026-03-0917:27

            That and much worse happened in the ~1675-1775 era of English and chartered company and proprietors lording over the American people, including actions that lead to mass starvation and death. It still took 100 years to totally throw off that yoke, though there were a few failed rebellions (like Bacon's).

  • By orwin 2026-03-0917:002 reply

    Ok, so since the article isn't clear (once again, OSINT is the only reliable source it seems).

    - Multiple missiles of unknown origin hit the school where at least 110 schoolgirl died.

    - Multiple missiles hit IRGC hospital/clinic near that school around the same time.

    - one missile that struck the hospital/clinic was identified as a Tomahawk, which would indicate that the strikes were from US force.

    While it is impossible to be 100% sure that the school was also struck by the US, the multiple strikes make the US 'air defense missile miss' story extremely unlikely.

    The fact that the salvo that hit the hospital was from the US make it more likely that they also struck the school, and not Israel.

    • By culi 2026-03-0919:29

      According to NYT on March 4, the count of dead is up to 175. The school is called Shajarah Tayyebeh in the town of Minab.

      https://archive.ph/ODMew

      Also from the Wikipedia page:

      > Subsequent investigations by The New York Times, CBC and NPR among others concluded that the United States was likely responsible for the strike. Sources involved with the United States military's internal investigation of the strike similarly told Reuters that the strike was likely perpetrated by the United States, though the investigation's final conclusion had not yet been reached.[12] The attack was condemned by the Iranian government, UNESCO,[13][14] and other international human rights organizations and activists as a violation of international humanitarian law.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_airstrike

    • By idle_zealot 2026-03-0917:081 reply

      > The fact that the salvo that hit the hospital was from the US make it more likely that they also struck the school, and not Israel

      Does it matter? We're unreservedly partnered with them in this and other pursuits. Moral culpability is shared.

      • By orwin 2026-03-0921:34

        Not the point, I wanted to be as clear as possible on the fact first, then explain why most people reduce its the US that bombed the schoolgirls. Of course it doesn't matter, not really.

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