What investigators often look for isn't just wallet age, but funding patterns, timing, and linkages between wallets

Prediction markets are probably most "accurate" when at least some participants have genuinely superior information

I think this is mixing up two different things: influence and knowledge

In theory maybe, but in practice companies almost always do care about keeping things like release timing, product status or leadership decisions confidential. Even if they haven't publicly announced a policy about prediction markets specifically, it's usually covered under general confidentiality and acceptable use policies

Makes you wonder how much "market accuracy" on these platforms is actually just leakage