its probably not even a conscious decision from dwarkesh to be hyperbolic. pod casters who are hyperbolic are just simply watched more

he was not sure, but if i recall correctly, he put the probability at something like 90 percent of being able to do non verifiable tasks.

it's 20,000 in 2026, with the price of tokens halving every year (at a given perf level), this will be around 1,000 dollars in 2030

Interesting. Everyone in my circle said the opposite.