"In Machines of Loving Grace, I suggest that a 10–20% sustained annual GDP growth rate may be possible.""

Absolutely comical. Do you realise how much that is in absolute terms? These guys are making up as they go along. Cant believe people buy this nonsense.

Most people using LLMs dont have this craft...... which begs the question. Should they be using LLMs in the first place? Nope. But given that its rammed down their throat by folks internally and externally, they will.

Yep.

Man can we just get this hype phase over with? Its very obvious to anyone who truly has "general intelligence" in understanding the nature of the economy and the present labour market and its job classes that LLMs are not going to cause job destruction nor immense leaps in productivity.

To put it another way - who cares if you can write more lines of code - if your taste for project selection lacks? Google has an expansive grave yard for a reason.

Theres a lot of astroturfing on here too.

The reality is, LLMs to date have not significantly impacted the economy nor been the driver of extensive job destruction. They dont want to believe that and they dont want you to believe it either. So theyll keep saying "its coming, its coming" under the guise of fear mongering.

Agreed. I also believe the impact on producing software is also over-hyped and in the long term there will be a pull-back in the usage of the tools as the negative effects are figured out.

The unfortunate truth (for Amodei) is you cant automate true creativity and nor standardise taste. Try as they might.