This is the common belief but not quite correct! The Muon update was proposed by Bernstein as the result of a theoretical paper suggesting concrete realizations of the theory, and Keller implemented it and added practical things to get it to work well (input/output AdamW, aggressive coefficients, post-Nesterov, etc).

Both share equal credit I feel (also, the paper's co-authors!), both put in a lot of hard work for it, though I tend to bring up Bernstein since he tends to be pretty quiet about it himself.

(Source: am experienced speedrunner who's been in these circles for a decent amount of time)

shocked quack

There are versions of this kind of benchmark with a higher threshold, however, it only seems to adjust the timetables by a linear amount, so you're only buying 1-2 years or so depending on what you want that % success rate to be.