After Snowden's leaks don't we know the levels of spying that's already happening today? That was a decade ago, what has changed?

And (with a heavy dose of purposeful suspension of disbelief), if ICE does deport those people they've determined are "illegal", does anyone believe that the agency will scale down and stop? There will be new "enemies of the state"

Isn't this the intent of a prediction markets?

IIRC the original prediction markets existed to try and get as close as possible to finding the true answer to open questions. Someone willing to bet a lot of money on an outcome (because they have an edge/are very sure of an outcome) is the point, they're putting their money where their mouth is...

A missed aspect of "are right, a lot" LP is that the great leaders are able to quickly realize when they're wrong and get on the right side of the argument.

It's not "are right from the start, a lot", it's "are right, a lot", kind of works in hand with the Disagree and Commit LP

It's actually very straight-forward. UBI still means that most people's money eventually flows to the rent-seekers (Billionaires). Socialism (and I know this is not the Socialism Mamdani is proposing), means that most people own the means of production and rent-seeking isn't possible.