to be fair, it implies nothing about current state of the US economy and likelihood of recession now. Induction conclusion is not the one which suits the case.

By which time should we expect US administration to post a video on X about “good classic” plastic bags and ban in the US any attempt to replace them? :)

In my mental model, the fundamental problem of reproducibility is that scientists have very hard time to find a penny to fund such research. No one wants to grant “hey I need $1m and 2 years to validate the paper from last year which looks suspicious”.

Until we can change how we fund science on the fundamental level; how we assign grants — it will be indeed very hard problem to deal with.

If this is a symbolism, then why 30YR Treasuries are YTH despite FED rate cuts throughout the year?