Entrepreneurship, obviously.

One massive risk that I don’t hear anyone in the West talking about is the risk of giving Sunni populist rage over Gaza the spark it needs to overthrow US-aligned partners all over the Middle East. This could backfire really badly for Israel and the US if they suddenly lose all of their friends in high places in these countries. 98% of the non-elite Sunnis all over the world are enraged at Israel over Gaza. All of the surrounding countries (Egypt, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia) currently employ brutal authoritarian methods to suppress any pro-Palestinian sentiment beyond thoughts and prayers. If the regimes fall, all hell will break loose, and all of the hate will be directed towards Israel.

> The entire point of LLMs is that you don't have to spend money training them for each specific case.

I don’t agree. I would say the entire point of LLMs is to be able to solve a certain class of non-deterministic problems that cannot be solved with deterministic procedural code. LLMs don’t need to be generally useful in order to be useful for specific business use cases. I as a programmer would be very happy to have a local coding agent like Claude Code that can do nothing but write code in my chosen programming language or framework, instead of using a general model like Opus, if it could be hyper-specialized and optimized for that one task, so that it is small enough to run on my MacBook. I don’t need the other general reasoning capabilities of Opus.

I’ve tried those tiny LLMs and they don’t seem useful to me for real world tasks. They are toys for super simple autocomplete.

Super useful exercise. My gut tells me that someone will soon figure out how to build micro-LLMs for specialized tasks that have real-world value, and then training LLMs won’t just be for billion dollar companies. Imagine, for example, a hyper-focused model for a specific programming framework (e.g. Laravel, Django, NextJS) trained only on open-source repositories and documentation and carefully optimized with a specialized harness for one task only: writing code for that framework (perhaps in tandem with a commodity frontier model). Could a single programmer or a small team on a household budget afford to train a model that works better/faster than OpenAI/Anthropic/DeepSeek for specialized tasks? My gut tells me this is possible; and I have a feeling that this will become mainstream, and then custom model training becomes the new “software development”.