Biofuels Policy, a Mainstay of American Agriculture, a Failure for the Climate

2025-06-1516:028475insideclimatenews.org

A longtime critic of U.S. biofuels says an expansion of biofuels policy under President Donald Trump would lead to more greenhouse gas emissions and fewer food crops.

The American Midwest is home to some of the richest, most productive farmland in the world, enabling its transformation into a vast corn- and soy-producing machine—a conversion spurred largely by decades-long policies that support the production of biofuels.

But a new report takes a big swing at the ethanol orthodoxy of American agriculture, criticizing the industry for causing economic and social imbalances across rural communities and saying that the expansion of biofuels will increase greenhouse gas emissions, despite their purported climate benefits. 

The report, from the World Resources Institute, which has been critical of U.S. biofuel policy in the past, draws from 100 academic studies on biofuel impacts. It concludes that ethanol policy has been largely a failure and ought to be reconsidered, especially as the world needs more land to produce food to meet growing demand.

“Multiple studies show that U.S. biofuel policies have reshaped crop production, displacing food crops and driving up emissions from land conversion, tillage and fertilizer use,” said the report’s lead author, Haley Leslie-Bole. “Corn-based ethanol, in particular, has contributed to nutrient runoff, degraded water quality and harmed wildlife habitat. As climate pressures grow, increasing irrigation and refining for first-gen biofuels could deepen water scarcity in already drought-prone parts of the Midwest.”

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The conversion of Midwestern agricultural land has been sweeping. Between 2004 and 2024, ethanol production increased by nearly 500 percent. Corn and soybeans are now grown on 92 and 86 million acres of land respectively—and roughly a third of those crops go to produce ethanol. That means about 30 million acres of land that could be used to grow food crops are instead being used to produce ethanol, despite ethanol only accounting for 6 percent of the country’s transportation fuel. 

The biofuels industry—which includes refiners, corn and soy growers and the influential agriculture lobby writ large—have long insisted that corn- and soy-based biofuels provide an energy efficient alternative to fossil-based fuels. Congress and the U.S. Department of Agriculture have agreed.

The country’s primary biofuels policy, the Renewable Fuel Standard, requires that biofuels provide a greenhouse gas reduction over fossil fuels: The law says that ethanol from new plants must deliver a 20 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to gasoline. 

In addition to greenhouse gas reductions, the industry and its allies in Congress have also continued to say that ethanol is a primary mainstay of the rural economy, benefiting communities across the Midwest.

But a growing body of research—much of which the industry has tried to debunk and deride—suggests that ethanol actually may not provide the benefits that policies require. It may, in fact, produce more greenhouse gases than the fossil fuels it was intended to replace. Recent research says that biofuel refiners also emit significant amounts of carcinogenic and dangerous substances, including hexane and formaldehyde, in greater amounts than petroleum refineries.

The new report points to research saying that increased production of biofuels from corn and soy could actually raise greenhouse gas emissions, largely from carbon emissions linked to clearing land in other countries to compensate for the use of land in the Midwest. 

On top of that, corn is an especially fertilizer-hungry crop requiring large amounts of nitrogen-based fertilizer, which releases huge amounts of nitrous oxide when it interacts with the soil. American farming is by far the largest source of domestic nitrous oxide emissions already—about 50 percent. If biofuel policies lead to expanded production, emissions of this enormously powerful greenhouse gas will likely increase, too. 

The new report concludes that not only will the expansion of ethanol increase greenhouse gas emissions, it has also failed to provide the social and financial benefits to Midwestern communities that lawmakers and the industry say it has. (The report defines the Midwest as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio,

South Dakota and Wisconsin.)

“The benefits from biofuels remain concentrated in the hands of a few,” Leslie-Bole said. “As subsidies flow, so may the trend of farmland consolidation, increasing inaccessibility of farmland in the Midwest and locking out emerging or low-resource farmers. This means the benefits of biofuels production are flowing to fewer people, while more are left bearing the costs.”

New policies being considered in state legislatures and Congress, including additional tax credits and support for biofuel-based aviation fuel, could expand production, potentially causing more land conversion and greenhouse gas emissions, widening the gap between the rural communities and rich agribusinesses at a time when food demand is climbing and, critics say, land should be used to grow food instead. 

President Donald Trump’s tax cut bill, passed by the House and currently being negotiated in the Senate, would not only extend tax credits for biofuels producers, it specifically excludes calculations of emissions from land conversion when determining what qualifies as a low-emission fuel. 

The primary biofuels industry trade groups, including Growth Energy and the Renewable Fuels Association, did not respond to Inside Climate News requests for comment or interviews.

An employee with the Clean Fuels Alliance America, which represents biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel producers, not ethanol, said the report vastly overstates the carbon emissions from crop-based fuels by comparing the farmed land to natural landscapes, which no longer exist. 

They also noted that the impact of soy-based fuels in 2024 was more than $42 billion, providing over 100,000 jobs.

“Ten percent of the value of every bushel of soybeans is linked to biomass-based fuel,” they said.

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Comments

  • By adrianN 2025-06-1517:143 reply

    The easiest fix might be pushing for faster adoption of BEVs. Nobody can easily take subsidies away from farmers.

    • By chrisweekly 2025-06-1520:581 reply

      BEV - Battery Electric Vehicle

      (just in case it's not obvious)

      • By ashoeafoot 2025-06-1521:272 reply

        Are you aware that by having agriculture directly integrated inro the fuel/electricity market, you have ai compete directly against people for basic survival neccssities?

        • By theoreticalmal 2025-06-1522:171 reply

          Wouldn’t it technically be “the use of AI complete directly…” a well-functioning market would easily solve this by prioritizing the basic survival needs over what AI use provides.

          • By GuinansEyebrows 2025-06-1523:22

            > “ a well-functioning market would easily solve this by prioritizing the basic survival needs over what AI use provides.”

            In fiction. What you’re saying is in a fictional scenario designed to benefit humans, this would happen. What in the history of this earth would make you believe that fiction though?

        • By chrisweekly 2025-06-1613:45

          You might be replying to the wrong message; I was just providing the acronym's definition.

    • By peterbecich 2025-06-167:191 reply

      I would be content to settle for carbon-neutral synthetic gasoline. It is politically viable. But the price needs to be lower. The startup Prometheus is working on this.

      • By danhor 2025-06-1619:331 reply

        Carbon-neutral synthetic gasoline is and will be too expensive to work, apart from small niche cases. This makes it politically unviable.

        We're going to have almost universal BEV adoption before the carbon avoidance cost of synthetic gasoline becomes attractive.

        • By peterbecich 2025-06-1622:57

          The tail of gasoline cars will be long. "Beater" gas cars will be around for decades. I will opine just on the USA: it has to be solved from the top-down with 0 inconvenience to average people. If you synthesize gasoline with abundant nuclear or solar power, I think it could be cost-competitive with old-fashioned crude oil.

    • By paddy_m 2025-06-1519:095 reply

      BEV are not a serious climate solution unless you are talking about ebikes. BEV also contribute a load of pollution to waterways via tire wear. ebikes are cheaper to purchase and make a significant change.

      • By decimalenough 2025-06-1520:121 reply

        They're not a panacea, but they're better than gas/petrol/diesel (or biofuel) cars across the board. Emissions have dropped and air quality has measurably improved in places with high BEV adoption, like Norway and China.

        Even the weight thing is a bit of a red herring: if we really cared about that, we should restrict car weights across the board. (Few BEVs clock in at over 2T, while virtually every F-150 style truck does.)

        • By speed_spread 2025-06-1523:552 reply

          Last time I checked, a Tesla 3 (a small car by NA standards) weighted 1800kg. That's twice the weight of my 1987 VW Jetta and very close to that 2T you mention. The weight issue is real; it affects the driving dynamics and makes the energy problem worse in many ways.

          • By dalyons 2025-06-162:591 reply

            1987 is not a valid comparison for many reasons. Pick modern premium sedans (eg bmw) as a comparison and you’ll see it isn’t that different.

            • By speed_spread 2025-06-164:112 reply

              Modern cars are generally overweight. A 1987 BMW 325 weighted 1200kg. Considering the advances of materials science and digital technology, weight should have gone down, not up. What's the daily purpose of that extra 600kg, other than protecting against an eventual collision with a monstruous pickup?

              • By peterbecich 2025-06-167:16

                Safety arms race of vehicle size. We would all be better off collectively with smaller vehicles, imo.

              • By adrianN 2025-06-164:43

                Colliding with 1t of car is similarly deadly as with 2t of car. Traffic fatalities have gone way down in the past forty years.

          • By adrianN 2025-06-163:21

            BEVs are not that much heavier than comparable ICEs. All modern cars are too big and too heavy. From an energy standpoint weight is less of a problem for electric cars because they can recuperate.

      • By toomuchtodo 2025-06-1520:36

        90M light vehicles are sold globally every year. As long as consumers demand cars, BEVs are the most climate friendly cars to sell them. Anyone saying “don’t buy cars!” is living a pipe dream.

        China is going to build as many EVs as the world can consume.

        (don’t disagree that we should build and sell as manly electric bikes as possible, but they are not a replacement for vehicles in many cases)

      • By rwyinuse 2025-06-1610:371 reply

        Why not both? Ebikes are obviously highly useful in cities, but not so much for longer distances in the countryside, also problematic in winter up north. There will always be need for private car ownership for areas that can't be effectively served by public transport (and obviously public transport itself should also be electric powered).

        Just electrify everything and let people choose what mode of transport fits their needs and wallet. I barely use my car in city, but absolutely need it to visit my relatives who do not live within reach of public transport.

        • By paddy_m 2025-06-1613:451 reply

          Because resources are finite. Subsisdies and household income invested in Electric cars would have a much greater benefit if put towards ebikes. Most car trips are short and could be replaced with ebike trips (and that's without any infrastructure change). Leave long trips to gas cars that already exist.

          For public transit, rail should be electrified because it has lower maintenance requirements and better acceleration. Trolley busses are great for similar reasons (and noise). Battery busses are a horrible idea, expensive and not yet reliable. Transit agencies are replacing diesel busses with battery because of lower emissions, and at the same time reducing frequency of service, making public transit less usable and less used -- encouraging personal vehicle use.

          • By danhor 2025-06-1620:15

            Most car trips could be replaced with ebike trips, but the majority of distance travelled (and thus, roughly, carbon emitted) can't. 80% of the distance driven is with trips >10 km, 70% of the distance driven already at >20 km. There are people doing these trips on E-Bikes daily, but even with great infrastructure they'll remain a small proportion of the modal split (Data from Germany, MiD, 2017). The long(er) trips are the majority of the problem, as the rest are, well, short.

            Most rail should be powered by overhead electricity, but for short- to medium-term gains BEMUs are also great, with most European train manufacturers not building DMUs anymore. They'll hopefully also come down in price, as this first generation is really expensive.

            I know that the US (and Canada) has issues with battery busses, but in (western) Europe, they work great (but currently still a tad too expensive). Trolley busses are even more expensive (similar if not higher purchasing cost, much higher infrastructure cost, slightly less energy usage) and require a whole lengthy political process to deploy, while battery busses can be deployed in a few months.

            BEVs are the only feasible solution for replacing a large part, if not most, of the emissions from cars. Even in countries with a great countrywide transit network and reasonable bike infrastructure (Germany), 73% of passenger-kilometers are traveled by car (MiD 2023, 19% by transit, 4% by bike, 4% by walking), down from 80% in 2002. There is no way to much more than double transit usage in the next 15-20 years. And the situation is much worse in e.g. the USA where little good transit exists, where good infrastructure exists operations suck, building transit is astoundingly expensive, land developmental patterns run contra feasible attractive transit and transit agencies seem unable to learn anything from outside the US (in operations, construction, planning, ...).

            This is not to say that anti-car policies (and pro-walking/biking/transit) policies shouldn't be implemented and are in many cases preferable compared to subsidizing BEVs, but their potential in the short- to medium-term for carbon reduction is quite limited.

      • By rainsford 2025-06-1521:46

        Ebikes might have more positive impact, but that doesn't matter unless you can convince a critical mass of people to use them instead of their cars. I say this as someone who thinks ebikes are cool, but that's absolutely not going to happen in any significant way at least in the US. Replacing a gas car with an ebike requires a significant shift in your lifestyle, which most people either can't or don't want to do. The benefit of a BEV is that you can mostly use it exactly like you use the gas car you already have, with some added benefit of being able to "refuel" it at home while you sleep. Changes that people actually adopt are at the end of the day the most impactful ones.

  • By lazide 2025-06-1516:362 reply

    This has been obvious for anyone doing the basic math since the beginning.

    It was great for farmers though.

    • By itsanaccount 2025-06-1516:50

      It was great for large investor backed farmers who bought out their neighbors via debt, leased expensive John Deere equipment via debt, and are now trapped.

    • By throwawaymaths 2025-06-1517:492 reply

      iirc it is scientifically possible to take corn stover and convert it to bioethanol with net negative carbon emissions.

      • By rgmerk 2025-06-1518:182 reply

        There was a bunch of activity in the 2000s and 2010s trying and failing to do this commercially.

        Never say never but for ground transport BEVs seem like they will eat the market well before anyone gets the technology working.

        • By pfdietz 2025-06-1520:591 reply

          BEVs powered by PV use two orders of magnitude less land than ICEVs burning biofuels.

          Biofuels are just incredibly land (and water) hungry. In the post fossil fuel age, biofuels will be reserved for special applications, if that (and for providing carbonaceous feedstocks for the organic chemical industry.)

          • By throwawaymaths 2025-06-1522:271 reply

            > use two orders of magnitude less land

            not if you use stover and cob. in those cases, you use net zero new land (you were growing kernels anyways)

            • By pfdietz 2025-06-164:051 reply

              Using a process that no one is using. Ethanol from cellulose failed.

              • By throwawaymaths 2025-06-1620:441 reply

                Clearly. Worth asking why though, if it wasn't scientific (assuming my recollection is correct). Is it because of patents? Lost knowledge? Better alternative? Subtle engineering issue?

                • By pfdietz 2025-06-1622:281 reply

                  It was a technical failure, I believe. It was too difficult to hydrolyze cellulose and hemicellulose efficiently into a mixture that would allow enzymatic conversion to ethanol. Enzymes are easily poisoned and the mixture is more complex than what one gets from starch (which is just polymerized glucose.)

                  There is one success story, in Brazil.

                  https://pubs.aip.org/physicstoday/article/75/7/22/2848574/Wh...

                  Conversion of cellulosic biomass into chemicals other than ethanol might be the better route to take, particularly if green hydrogen can be used to boost the yield. Virent (which was bought out by an oil company) has a process for doing this. It would yield even more fuel per unit of biomass than conversion to ethanol, as potentially all the carbon can end up in the fuel. The fuel could also be drop-in replacement for existing hydrocarbon fuels. But there's not much interest in this as long as oil is still being used.

                  • By throwawaymaths 2025-06-178:50

                    again i recall it wasnt technical, but i dont recall where i heard that (i could be wrong). they might also not have been doing enzymes, it might have been orgsnismal. do you have specific knowledge that this effort failed for technical reasons?

        • By throwawaymaths 2025-06-1520:071 reply

          yes I'm aware. in that era, which was last i tracked this field, BP had a pilot plant that reached commercial and greenhouse breakeven, but then they lost the deepwater horizon case and scuttled their biofuels research, I'd be surprised if no one caught up. did no one catch up?

          • By throwawaymaths 2025-06-1523:271 reply

            this is as much evidence as i can find on the internet that this was a thing, i cant remember where i heard that it was breakeven:

            > BP sought to experiment with ways to turn corncobs, sugarcane and other agricultural waste into biofuel

            https://www.nola.com/news/business/bp-shutters-biofuel-plant...

            • By rgmerk 2025-06-165:402 reply

              My thought is if the plant was on track to success but was killed by corporate politics somebody else would have tried again. The demand for carbon-neutral liquid fuels isn’t going away; long-range shipping and aviation aren’t going to run on batteries.

              • By throwawaymaths 2025-06-1620:46

                > somebody else would have tried again.

                Yes. I would think that too. But the market isn't efficient, VCS are definitely not efficient, and it takes a lot of capital to spin up a factory, and the number of qualified people to run this factory is probably in the hundreds worldwide. Also ppl who worked on it in the past might be burned out, or not have access to key IP... Hundreds of things could get in the way

              • By lazide 2025-06-1615:49

                ‘Demand’ in this sense is driven by economics + politics.

                Nothing is going to beat fossil fuels on pure economics, so then we’re left with what political pressure will be applied and how much to make other options economic enough.

                Biofuels are so marginal, it’s unlikely they’re going to ‘win’ as they would require exceptional political pressure and excluding a lot of other options.

      • By magnuspaaske 2025-06-1518:281 reply

        There are people who use pyrolysis to turn left over biomass to biochar which can then be added to the soil and, depending on your energy use for other things, can turn the process carbon net negative. It is a roundabout way to sequester carbon though as you need to consider the opportunity cost of doing other things with the land (like leaving it for nature to take over and sequester carbon that way).

        It's always worth being sceptical about some of these claims about processes magically being carbon net negative since cleaning up the atmosphere might not actually be what's paying the bills leading to inherent conflicts between selling a product (ethanol) and doing an environmental service. Switching to EVs will allow you to use much less land to fuel the cars with wind or solar energy and then the leftover land can be used for carbon sequestration and rewilding/biodiversity projects where that's the sole focus of the operation.

        • By worik 2025-06-1520:171 reply

          Yes

          Deeper topsoil is a good way to sequester carbon.

          • By lazide 2025-06-1617:18

            Buffer maybe. Like forests, actual sequestration (beyond an initial ‘loading’ amount) isn’t a thing long term.

  • By jajko 2025-06-1518:292 reply

    No word about cutting down whole rain forests (ie on Borneo or mainland Malaysia) just to have more biofuels? I've seen those endless fields of that palm monoculture where almost nothing else lives from above and in person, and also how proper rain forest next to it looks like, it was a very depressing view.

    • By alephnerd 2025-06-1519:32

      The palm plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia are targeted at human consumption - palm oil is the primary cheap cooking oil across Asia, and demand is high.

      Paraguay and Brazil are where a significant portion of plantation farming is targeted at biofuels.

    • By chabska 2025-06-163:53

      "Deforestation" is also known as economic development, when someone is not trying to disparage a third world country. Malaysia and Indonedia, with their relatively stable politics and governance, gained a lot of FDI in the 1970's and started developing rapidly. Rainforests were cleared, true, and initially the land was planted with rubber, because that's was the most profitable crop that grows well in this climate. Then rubber price crashed, so the farmers switched to oil palm, the next most profitable crop.

      There is no intrinsic link between biofuel and deforestation. If coffee is the most profitable crop, then you'd see an endless sea of coffee plantations in Malaysia. Would you want to ban coffee then? Okay you banned coffee, so cocoa now is the most profitable crop, so you banned cocoa. Now pineapple is the most profitable crop, so forth and so on.

      The logical conclusion is that when you try to "save the forest", you are saying that a country has no sovereignty in developing its economy and exploiting its resource to enrich its citizen. "You should stay poor, because I say so".

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