There is growing evidence that the widespread adoption of generative AI is impacting the job prospects of America's workers, according to a paper released on Tuesday by three Stanford University researchers.
The study analyzed payroll records from millions of American workers, generated by ADP, the largest payroll software firm in the U.S.
The report found "early, large-scale evidence consistent with the hypothesis that the AI revolution is beginning to have a significant and disproportionate impact on entry-level workers in the American labor market."
Most notably, the findings revealed that workers between the ages of 22 and 25 in jobs most exposed to AI — such as customer service, accounting and software development — have seen a 13% decline in employment since 2022.
By contrast, employment for more experienced workers in the same fields, and for workers of all ages in less-exposed occupations such as nursing aides, has stayed steady or grown. Jobs for young health aides, for example, rose faster than their older counterparts.
Front-line production and operations supervisors' roles also showed an increase in employment for young workers, though this growth was smaller than that for workers over the age of 35.
The potential impact of AI on the job market has been a concern across industries and age groups, but the Stanford study appears to show that the results will be far from uniform.
The study sought to rule out factors that could skew the data, including education level, remote work, outsourced jobs, and broader economic shifts, which could impact hiring decisions.
According to the Stanford study, their findings may explain why national employment growth for young workers has been stagnant, while overall employment has largely remained resilient since the global pandemic, despite recent signs of softening.
Young workers were said to be especially vulnerable because AI can replace "codified knowledge," or "book-learning" that comes from formal education. On the other hand, AI may be less capable of replacing knowledge that comes from years of experience.
The researchers also noted that not all uses of AI are associated with declines in employment. In occupations where AI complements work and is used to help with efficiency, there have been muted changes in employment rates.
The study — which hasn't been peer-reviewed — appears to show mounting evidence that AI will replace jobs, a topic that has been hotly debated.
Earlier this month, a Goldman Sachs economist said changes to the American labor market brought on by the arrival of generative AI were already showing up in employment data, particularly in the technology sector and among younger employees.
He also noted that most companies were yet to deploy artificial intelligence for day-to-day use, meaning that the job market impact had yet to be fully realized.
